3 Things to Know: 125th U.S. Open, Round 4

The stage is set on Sunday to crown the 125th U.S. Open champion, and the 92nd unique champion, unless Brooks Koepka (T-21) or Jordan Spieth (T29) can make a truly remarkable, unprecedented rally.

Interestingly, the past two U.S. Open champions at Oakmont Country Club both held the solo lead through 36 holes, then slipped behind by four strokes through 54 holes before claiming the trophy. Those champions have another thing in common – Angel Cabrera (2007) and Dustin Johnson (2016) later went on to capture the Masters Tournament.

Add in Johnny Miller’s historic comeback from six strokes behind with a closing 8-under-par 63 in 1973, and three of the past five U.S. Open champions at Oakmont have made major Sunday rallies. If you toss in Larry Nelson’s 60-foot birdie putt on the 70th hole that clipped defending champion Tom Watson by one back in 1983, the potential for Sunday drama on this Henry C. Fownes masterpiece is high.

Here are 3 Things to Know for Round 4.

Proximity Matters

Previous Oakmont finishes notwithstanding – you could call the above comebacks outliers – the U.S. Open has historically rewarded players either leading or lurking. Of the most recent 55 champions, 51 were among the top five on the leader board entering the final round.

If there is a reason not to expect a huge rally from behind, it might be that three of the four players in the final two groupings put together under-par rounds on Saturday. Adam Scott (67), Sam Burns (69), and J.J. Spaun (69) don’t appear to be going anywhere, and the fourth member of that quartet, Viktor Hovland, shot even-par 70 to stay under par for the championship. Of the next five pairings, only Thriston Lawrence (70) managed to match par among the 10 players.

The key to keeping at or near the top on Sunday may well hinge on making what the NBC commentators referred to as “U.S. Open pars”: recovering from a wayward tee shot with an up-and-down save from distance. Burns did it twice on par 4s on Saturday after being bunkered off the tee and needing to pitch out well short of the green. On No. 7, he knocked a 125-yard third shot to 6 feet, and on No. 14, he hit a 105-yard wedge to 7 feet.

A couple of similar pars on Sunday could go a long way toward someone lifting the trophy.

Daunting, But Different

After nearly an inch of rain Friday evening and a couple of showers during Round 3, players were required to adjust their plan of attack. Balls that typically bounded and rolled down the fairway or on approach the first two days often stopped much more quickly, and the pace of putts similarly surprised many players who expected more rollout.

“It was like a readjustment out there today,” said Adam Scott, who enters the final round one stroke back of Sam Burns. “Obviously, it was softer, and controlling spin to some pins was very difficult.”

The 12th hole provided a prime example of what the softened conditions brought. The fairway of the 632-yard par 5 was the second-toughest to hit the first two days (just 31 percent found it in Round 1), and it played to an over-par stroke average both days. In Round 3, 70 percent of players hit the fairway (T-9 overall), and it ended up playing three-10th of a stroke easier than in Round 1 (4.79 vs. 5.09), despite the field averaging 25 fewer yards off the tee (319 yards vs. 344 yards). Control takes precedence over length, particularly at a U.S. Open.

The overall scoring average for Round 3 was more than two strokes lower than in Round 2 (72.7 vs. 74.8), and there were 12 under-par rounds posted, more than either of the first two days (10 and seven, respectively). Carlos Ortiz of Mexico shot 3-under 67, making a bogey on No. 18 that kept him from posting just the second bogey-free round of the championship (J.J. Spaun, Round 1), and what would have been only the seventh in the past five U.S. Opens at Oakmont.

Great Scott

When Adam Scott was asked on Friday to describe what he considered the window for him winning a second major title 12 years after his victory in the 2013 Masters, he answered succinctly: “Ajar.”

Scott is belying more than just his age (44) as he seeks to become the second-oldest U.S. Open champion behind Hale Irwin. Scott, who turns 45 on July 16, would be just 46 days younger than Irwin, who was 45 years, 15 days old when he captured his third title in 1990 at Medinah Country Club, having received a special exemption from the USGA.

Scott is also putting together one of his best U.S. Open efforts in this, his 24th start, all of them consecutive (to go along with 96 straight major appearances). He has nine missed cuts and just three top 10s across the years, with his best finish of T-4 a decade ago at Chambers Bay, thanks to a closing round of 64, a score that has been bettered by just nine players in championship history.

Scott is the only player among the top 10 with a major title on his résumé, and should he win, he would break the record for the longest span between a player’s first and second major championship. The current mark of 11 years is shared by Julius Boros (1952 and 1963 U.S. Opens) and Ben Crenshaw (1984 and 1995 Masters).

“I really haven’t been in this kind of position for five or six years, or feeling like I’m that player,” said Scott, who last contended in a major at the 2018 PGA Championship, where he finished fourth. “But that’s what I’m always working toward. If I were to come away with it, it would be a hell of a round of golf and an exclamation point on my career.”

Ron Driscoll is a freelance writer and editor for the USGA. Email him at v-rdriscoll@usga.org.